Proposal 1 · Paper 1Draft
Verify, don't just close
Check incident actions at three stages, implemented, embedded and effective, before calling them done.
Independent safety research and media
Catch it at the near miss.
We check the numbers behind safety, explain what they miss in plain language, and turn the evidence into open practice proposals that anyone, anywhere, can check.
Get each new episode and paper by email
4working papers
4practice proposals
3ASP classes a week
2,000ASP questions
2,000CSP questions
Nopaid sponsors
New · Free CSP Exam Prep
Free ASP and CSP prep, in 90 seconds
2,000 original CSP questions with every answer explained, an 8-week study plan, five timed mocks with an exam-style calculator, and The Catch certificate. No paywall.
Where do you want to start?
Four ways into the show, depending on what brought you here.
I work in safety
Check the numbers you report
Try the rate converter, then read what TRIR can and can't tell you.
Try the converter
I'm preparing for the ASP or CSP
I want to watch and learn
Study with us, free
ASP: 2,000 original questions, 5 timed mocks and a 12-block plan. CSP: 2,000 original questions, 5 timed mocks and an 8-week plan.
ASP portal CSP portalClasses and series you can follow
Short episodes, real sources, and an expert panel to close each series.
See this week
The foundation we're building
From evidence to practice, in the open
Every working paper ends in a practice proposal. Each one moves through four stages, and anyone can comment before it's revised. The papers are working papers and have not yet been peer reviewed.
1ResearchA working paper tests the problem with evidence
2ProposalA clear practice proposal, labelled as a draft
3Open for commentPractitioners and institutions test it
4Revised guidanceUpdated after comment, free for anyone to use
Proposal 2 · Paper 2Draft
Recognize the change
Name the four classes of change that slip past management of change, so they trigger a review.
Proposal 3 · Paper 3Draft
Watch the barriers
Four monthly barrier-health indicators that warn of major accident risk when TRIR looks clean.
Proposal 4 · Paper 4Draft
State the base
Report every injury rate with its hours base and the hours actually worked, so rates can be compared across countries.
Free email updates
Follow the foundation as it's built
Algorithms decide who sees a post. Email reaches you directly. Join safety professionals getting each new piece the day it's published.
- New episodes from every series
- New working papers, with a plain-language summary
- Practice proposals when they open for your comments
One or two emails a month. No spam, never shared. Unsubscribe in one click. See our privacy notice.
Try it · Same safety, two numbers
Is 2.5 worse than 0.5?
Not necessarily. US rates count per 200,000 hours; many international companies count per 1,000,000. Move the sliders and watch the same site produce two very different numbers.
Based on Paper 4 and Near Miss Research Episode 1.
Why near misses
The base of the pyramid is where learning is cheapest
Pick a level to see what it tells you.
Ratio from Frank Bird's 1969 study of about 1.75 million incident reports. The exact ratio is debated, and injury counts don't predict major accidents (Paper 3).
On The Near Miss Show
Fixed days you can count on
Road to ASP runs three days a week and follows the free study portal. New series launch in November, and each gets a fixed day once it has held its schedule for a month.
Latest episode · Near Miss Research
The 200,000 in your TRIR is a 1971 US working year
Where the 200,000-hour base comes from, why it isn't an international standard, and how to compare rates fairly.
Founder & Host
Adnan Zafar (AZL)
A chemical engineer and HSE professional working on safety management systems, audits, incident learning and management of change. He founded The Near Miss Show to check the numbers his profession relies on, and to publish the evidence openly.
9+years in HSE across oil and gas, power and construction
4open-access working papers as an independent researcher
BEngChemical Engineering, Lancaster University
How every episode is made
Five steps, every time
The same method for every video, paper and study note. The full rules are in our editorial standards.
Source
Law, investigation reports and research first. Every number gets a source, year, unit and base.
Script
Plain language, with the conversions shown on screen.
Check
Every claim and every calculation re-checked against its source.
Record
Narrated by AZL in his own voice. No synthetic voices.
Correct
Errors fixed within 48 hours and logged in our public corrections log.
We invite collaborations
Good practice can't come from one person
If you want safety numbers to mean the same thing everywhere, work with us. Collaborators are credited by name, nothing is published without their approval, and we take no paid sponsorships.
Co-author or review
Join a working paper, review a draft, or share data that tests a finding.
Join a panel
Every series closes with two or three subject experts. Be one of them.
Test the proposals
Professional bodies and universities: comment on the drafts before they're revised.
Teach or translate
Help bring the free study material to more people and languages.